I now understand that the argument in the article is correct (and p=.99 in all scenarios). The formulation of the scenarios caused me some kind of cognitive dissonance but now I no longer see a problem with the correct reading of the argument.
I now understand that the argument in the article is correct (and p=.99 in all scenarios). The formulation of the scenarios caused me some kind of cognitive dissonance but now I no longer see a problem with the correct reading of the argument.