Right, SIA assumes that you are a random observer from the set of all possible observers, and so it follows that worlds with more real people are more likely to contain you.
This is clearly unreasonable, because “you” could not have found yourself to be one of the non-real people. “You” is just a name for whoever finds himself to be real. This is why you should consider yourself a random selection from the real people.
In the particular case under consideration, you should consider yourself a random selection from the people who are told the rules. This is because only those people can estimate the probability; in as much as you estimate the probability, you could not possibly have found yourself to be one of those who are not told the rules.
That’s a complicated question, because in this case your estimate will depend on your estimate of the reasons why you were selected as the one to know the rules. If you are 100% certain that you were randomly selected out of all the persons, and it could have been a person killed who was told the rules (before he was killed), then your probability of being behind a blue door will be 99%.
If you are 100% certain that you were deliberately chosen as a survivor, and if someone else had survived and you had not, the other would have been told the rules and not you, then your probability will be 50%.
To the degree that you are uncertain about how the choice was made, your probability will be somewhere between these two values.
You could have been one of those who didn’t learn the rules, you just wouldn’t have found out about it. Why doesn’t the fact that this didn’t happen tell you anything?
Right, SIA assumes that you are a random observer from the set of all possible observers, and so it follows that worlds with more real people are more likely to contain you.
This is clearly unreasonable, because “you” could not have found yourself to be one of the non-real people. “You” is just a name for whoever finds himself to be real. This is why you should consider yourself a random selection from the real people.
In the particular case under consideration, you should consider yourself a random selection from the people who are told the rules. This is because only those people can estimate the probability; in as much as you estimate the probability, you could not possibly have found yourself to be one of those who are not told the rules.
So, what if the setting is the same as in B or C, except that “you” know that only “you” are told the rules?
That’s a complicated question, because in this case your estimate will depend on your estimate of the reasons why you were selected as the one to know the rules. If you are 100% certain that you were randomly selected out of all the persons, and it could have been a person killed who was told the rules (before he was killed), then your probability of being behind a blue door will be 99%.
If you are 100% certain that you were deliberately chosen as a survivor, and if someone else had survived and you had not, the other would have been told the rules and not you, then your probability will be 50%.
To the degree that you are uncertain about how the choice was made, your probability will be somewhere between these two values.
You could have been one of those who didn’t learn the rules, you just wouldn’t have found out about it. Why doesn’t the fact that this didn’t happen tell you anything?