Like, as a crappy toy model, if every alignment-visionary’s vision would ultimately succeed, but only after 30 years of study along their particular path, then no amount of new visionaries added will decrease the amount of time required from “30y since the first visionary started out”.
I think that a closer to true model is that most current research directions will lead approximately no-where but we don’t know until someone goes and check. Under this model adding more researchers increases the probability that at least someone is working on fruitful research direction. And I don’t think you (So8res) disagree, at least not completely?
I don’t think we’re doing something particularly wrong here. Rather, I’d say: the space to explore is extremely broad; humans are sparsely distributed in the space of intuitions they’re able to draw upon; people who have an intuition they can follow towards plausible alignment-solutions are themselves pretty rare; most humans don’t have the ability to make research progress without an intuition to guide them. Each time we find a new person with an intuition to guide them towards alignment solutions, it’s likely to guide them in a whole new direction, because the space is so large. Hopefully at least one is onto something.
I do think that researchers stack, because there are lots of different directions that can and should be explored in parallel. So maybe the crux is to what fraction of people can do this? Most people I talk to do have research intrusions. I think it takes time and skill to cultivate one’s intuition into an agenda that one can communicate to others, but just having enough intuition to guide one self is a much lower bar. However most people I talk to think they have to fit into someone else’s idea of what AIS research look like in order to get paid. Unfortunately I think this is a correct belief for everyone without exceptional communication skills and/or connections. But I’m honestly uncertain about this, since I don’t have a good understanding of the current funding landscape.
A side from money there are also imposter-syndrom type effects going on. A lot of people I talk to don’t feel like they are allowed to have their own research direction, for vague social reasons. Some things that I have noticed sometimes helps:
Telling them “Go for it!”, and similar things. Repletion helps.
Talking about how young AIS is as a field, and the implications of this, including the fact that their intrusions about the importance of expertise is probably wrong when applied to AIS.
Handing over a post-it note with the text “Hero Licence”.
I think that a closer to true model is that most current research directions will lead approximately no-where but we don’t know until someone goes and check. Under this model adding more researchers increases the probability that at least someone is working on fruitful research direction. And I don’t think you (So8res) disagree, at least not completely?
I do think that researchers stack, because there are lots of different directions that can and should be explored in parallel. So maybe the crux is to what fraction of people can do this? Most people I talk to do have research intrusions. I think it takes time and skill to cultivate one’s intuition into an agenda that one can communicate to others, but just having enough intuition to guide one self is a much lower bar. However most people I talk to think they have to fit into someone else’s idea of what AIS research look like in order to get paid. Unfortunately I think this is a correct belief for everyone without exceptional communication skills and/or connections. But I’m honestly uncertain about this, since I don’t have a good understanding of the current funding landscape.
A side from money there are also imposter-syndrom type effects going on. A lot of people I talk to don’t feel like they are allowed to have their own research direction, for vague social reasons. Some things that I have noticed sometimes helps:
Telling them “Go for it!”, and similar things. Repletion helps.
Talking about how young AIS is as a field, and the implications of this, including the fact that their intrusions about the importance of expertise is probably wrong when applied to AIS.
Handing over a post-it note with the text “Hero Licence”.