:re “Companies leaving without the company” it’s worth thinking about what the equilibrium is. Foreign companies in currently-allied countries (e.g. Mistral which is founded and heavily staffed by Meta and GDM alumni) are currently poaching US lab staff or buying US chips in moderately large quantities with either no objection or the support of the US government. For the US government to countenance changes to chip policies or sanctions(!) with respect to such companies, the political and technological situation would have to change significantly from today.
I agree that US staff can probably move abroad (including to join foreign companies). My claim is that such a move can’t include IP, money, or sufficient numbers of chips. Given the importance of these three things, I still conclude that a move would probably destroy the lead of the AI company (or prevent the foreign company from catching up even with new staff).
I also think a clear mass exodus would be more politically actionable than the trickle of people to Mistral.
:re “Companies leaving without the company” it’s worth thinking about what the equilibrium is. Foreign companies in currently-allied countries (e.g. Mistral which is founded and heavily staffed by Meta and GDM alumni) are currently poaching US lab staff or buying US chips in moderately large quantities with either no objection or the support of the US government. For the US government to countenance changes to chip policies or sanctions(!) with respect to such companies, the political and technological situation would have to change significantly from today.
I agree that US staff can probably move abroad (including to join foreign companies). My claim is that such a move can’t include IP, money, or sufficient numbers of chips. Given the importance of these three things, I still conclude that a move would probably destroy the lead of the AI company (or prevent the foreign company from catching up even with new staff).
I also think a clear mass exodus would be more politically actionable than the trickle of people to Mistral.