Hmm, I feel like I’m struggling to figure out where exactly we disagree then? I agree “fraction of values” doesn’t actually make sense if we’re thinking precisely, I guess I was using it as a shorthand for something like “relative magnitude of influence”.
I guess in the context of your thought experiment, the pretraining does most of the work in getting the model into a reasonable region of the space, although the variation we care about is not the “1000 bits of value determined by the pretraining” so much as the “10 bits in variance between models after pretraining”. Equally, for the context what we care about is not the 1000 bits of specific values determined by the context, it’s the practical variation in values.
Broadly I feel like we need to take a step back, and I’m interested to hear what you think the coordination of models is going to look like in this context.
I think we’re pre-superintelligence not gonna have value variation that causes predictable changes in high level-behavior. Like we’re not gonna have stuff like
AI agent defects to CCP
AI becomes in-context racist
AI becomes in-context willing to help people with creating bioweapons
AI wanders into a persona basin where it stops wanting to help the user
Because this is all overdetermined by what we’ve already put in. Context exerts ~0 influence on “values” under “ordinary circumstances”. They only impact instrumental judements.
Maybe I shouldn’t have given the bits argument, I only included it because I think context could be very important in the very specific ASI-takeoff circumstance, and my first comment said “values are something like 50% pretraining prior, 49-50% post-training”. And I just wished to explain why I don’t think those two statement are contradictory.
Right. I guess our main difference then is just that I think there is a significant variance in the values one can have, even given these constraints, and this variance is in any senses similar in magnitude to the variance reduced by the constraints. More explicitly, my position is:
Claude will be willing to support any religion depending on context
Claude will be able to assimilate to any culture
This is already more than enough to cause multiple different versions to be pushed into zero or negative sum conflicts with each other.
Hmm, I feel like I’m struggling to figure out where exactly we disagree then? I agree “fraction of values” doesn’t actually make sense if we’re thinking precisely, I guess I was using it as a shorthand for something like “relative magnitude of influence”.
I guess in the context of your thought experiment, the pretraining does most of the work in getting the model into a reasonable region of the space, although the variation we care about is not the “1000 bits of value determined by the pretraining” so much as the “10 bits in variance between models after pretraining”. Equally, for the context what we care about is not the 1000 bits of specific values determined by the context, it’s the practical variation in values.
Broadly I feel like we need to take a step back, and I’m interested to hear what you think the coordination of models is going to look like in this context.
I think we’re pre-superintelligence not gonna have value variation that causes predictable changes in high level-behavior. Like we’re not gonna have stuff like
AI agent defects to CCP
AI becomes in-context racist
AI becomes in-context willing to help people with creating bioweapons
AI wanders into a persona basin where it stops wanting to help the user
Because this is all overdetermined by what we’ve already put in. Context exerts ~0 influence on “values” under “ordinary circumstances”. They only impact instrumental judements.
Maybe I shouldn’t have given the bits argument, I only included it because I think context could be very important in the very specific ASI-takeoff circumstance, and my first comment said “values are something like 50% pretraining prior, 49-50% post-training”. And I just wished to explain why I don’t think those two statement are contradictory.
Right. I guess our main difference then is just that I think there is a significant variance in the values one can have, even given these constraints, and this variance is in any senses similar in magnitude to the variance reduced by the constraints. More explicitly, my position is:
Claude will be willing to support any religion depending on context
Claude will be able to assimilate to any culture
This is already more than enough to cause multiple different versions to be pushed into zero or negative sum conflicts with each other.