If your bet is that something special about the economics of AI will cause it to crash, maybe your bet should be changed to this?
What’s relevant for me is that there is an AI market crash, such that AI corporations have weakened and we in turn have more leeway to restrict their reckless activities. Practically, I don’t mind if that’s actually the result of a wider failing economy – I mentioned a US recession as a causal factor here.
Having said that, it would be easier to restrict AI corp activities when there is not a general market crash at the same time (since the latter would make it harder to fund organisers as well as for working citizens to mobilise).
PS: I don’t exactly have $25k to bet, and I’ve said elsewhere I do believe there’s a big chance that AI spending will decrease.
Understood! And I appreciate you discussing thoughts with me here.
Another thought is that changes in the amount of investment may swing further than changes in the value...?
Interesting point! That feels right, but I lack experience/clarity about how investments work here.
What’s relevant for me is that there is an AI market crash, such that AI corporations have weakened and we in turn have more leeway to restrict their reckless activities. Practically, I don’t mind if that’s actually the result of a wider failing economy – I mentioned a US recession as a causal factor here.
Having said that, it would be easier to restrict AI corp activities when there is not a general market crash at the same time (since the latter would make it harder to fund organisers as well as for working citizens to mobilise).
Understood! And I appreciate you discussing thoughts with me here.
Interesting point! That feels right, but I lack experience/clarity about how investments work here.
Oh yeah I forgot about that, the bet is about the strategic implications of an AI market crash, not proving your opinion on AI economics.
Oops.