Reasonable, but wouldn’t such reasoning make Duck->Robin much more likely than Robin->Duck, since ducks seem to migrate further than robins (which at least in America don’t go further south than Florida) -- the exact opposite of what people said?
You disagree with their collective intellligence?
Maybe you know something they don’t. Or maybe they know something you don’t...
I disagree with collective intelligences all the time. Problem?
Not a problem, provided you turn out to be right and the “collective intelligences” wrong more often than not. Do you?
I think I do. My calibration is pretty good so far, and that’s on many collectively sourced predictions like Intrade.
“If you are so smart, why aren’t you rich?”
Akrasia and lack of capital.
Reasonable, but wouldn’t such reasoning make Duck->Robin much more likely than Robin->Duck, since ducks seem to migrate further than robins (which at least in America don’t go further south than Florida) -- the exact opposite of what people said?
You disagree with their collective intellligence?
Maybe you know something they don’t. Or maybe they know something you don’t...
I disagree with collective intelligences all the time. Problem?
Not a problem, provided you turn out to be right and the “collective intelligences” wrong more often than not. Do you?
I think I do. My calibration is pretty good so far, and that’s on many collectively sourced predictions like Intrade.
“If you are so smart, why aren’t you rich?”
Akrasia and lack of capital.