The multipolar point makes sense, it changes the character of expected takeover scenarios (more like gradual disempowerment than extreme concentration of power in the hands of specific AIs, humans, or human institutions). But what is the thing that’s unlikely in the next 100 years? MOSFETs were invented less than 70 years ago, and the industrial explosion scales things very far over decades even if all LLMs/pretraining/RLVR gives within a few years is merelyAGI (and then nothing else sufficiently novel happens for decades).
A combination of:
“ASIs emerge in a sufficiently multipolar way that they can’t individually take over the world”
“ASIs powerful enough to take over the world are literally impossible in some sense”
Except instead of “literally impossible“ I’d say something more like “unlikely in the next 100 years”.
The multipolar point makes sense, it changes the character of expected takeover scenarios (more like gradual disempowerment than extreme concentration of power in the hands of specific AIs, humans, or human institutions). But what is the thing that’s unlikely in the next 100 years? MOSFETs were invented less than 70 years ago, and the industrial explosion scales things very far over decades even if all LLMs/pretraining/RLVR gives within a few years is merely AGI (and then nothing else sufficiently novel happens for decades).