One difficulty I have with these posts is I never have any idea how seriously to take any of the percentages or even the overall conclusion. My overall update is to doubt there’s a reasonable threshold of saying “we don’t know enough to put a number on this”.
Yeah, my own instinct is to just see if the results are interesting in such a way that if I believed them, it would meaningfully change what I thought was the best strategy. In this case, don’t think so. Even what I see as a very optimistic set of assumptions still results in what I see as an unacceptably high risk of very bad outcomes. I do find the exploration itself interesting, though.
One difficulty I have with these posts is I never have any idea how seriously to take any of the percentages or even the overall conclusion. My overall update is to doubt there’s a reasonable threshold of saying “we don’t know enough to put a number on this”.
Yeah, my own instinct is to just see if the results are interesting in such a way that if I believed them, it would meaningfully change what I thought was the best strategy. In this case, don’t think so. Even what I see as a very optimistic set of assumptions still results in what I see as an unacceptably high risk of very bad outcomes. I do find the exploration itself interesting, though.