the ability to interpret the information better than everyone else
I don’t think it’s necessary to be better than everyone else. You only need to be better than most and that’s not a particularly high bar to clear.
For example, look at the two recent financial crises in the Eastern Mediterranean: the Cyprus bail-in and the Greek bank freeze. Clearly some people saw it coming and got out; and clearly some people sat there twiddling their thumbs and going err… maybe… I dunno… my neighbour says it’s going to be fine… -- and those people got caught and paid the price. You want to be in the first group, but you are not going to be alone in that group.
And is the ‘political risk insurance’ worth the cost?
That obviously depends on where you live. The calculations for someone who lives in, say, Norway and someone who lives in Lebanon are going to be very different.
I don’t think it’s necessary to be better than everyone else. You only need to be better than most and that’s not a particularly high bar to clear.
For example, look at the two recent financial crises in the Eastern Mediterranean: the Cyprus bail-in and the Greek bank freeze. Clearly some people saw it coming and got out; and clearly some people sat there twiddling their thumbs and going err… maybe… I dunno… my neighbour says it’s going to be fine… -- and those people got caught and paid the price. You want to be in the first group, but you are not going to be alone in that group.
That obviously depends on where you live. The calculations for someone who lives in, say, Norway and someone who lives in Lebanon are going to be very different.