I’m seconding the worries of people like the anonymous of the first comment and Wendy. I look at the first, and I think “with no marginal utility, it’s an expected value of 400 vs an expected value of 450.” I look at the second and think “with no marginal utility, it’s an expected value of −400 vs. an expected value of −50.” Marginal utility considerations—plausible if these are the last 500 people on Earth—sway the first case much more easily than they do the second case.
I’m seconding the worries of people like the anonymous of the first comment and Wendy. I look at the first, and I think “with no marginal utility, it’s an expected value of 400 vs an expected value of 450.” I look at the second and think “with no marginal utility, it’s an expected value of −400 vs. an expected value of −50.” Marginal utility considerations—plausible if these are the last 500 people on Earth—sway the first case much more easily than they do the second case.