I already told Buck that I loved this post. For this curation notice, let me be specific about why.
Posts from people who think carefully and seriously about difficult questions writing about some of the big ways they changed their mind over time are rare and valuable (other examples: Holden, Eliezer, Kahneman).
OP is unusually transparent, in a way that leads me to feel I can actually update on the data rather than holding it in an internal sandbox. In feel it has not been as adversarially selected as most other writings by someone about themselves, making it extremely valuable data. (Where data is normally covered up, even small amounts of true data are often very surprising.)
I find the specific update quite useful, including all of the examples. It fits together with Eliezer’s claim (at the end of section 5 here) that you can figure out which experts are right/wrong far more often than you can come up with the correct theory yourself.
I already told Buck that I loved this post. For this curation notice, let me be specific about why.
Posts from people who think carefully and seriously about difficult questions writing about some of the big ways they changed their mind over time are rare and valuable (other examples: Holden, Eliezer, Kahneman).
OP is unusually transparent, in a way that leads me to feel I can actually update on the data rather than holding it in an internal sandbox. In feel it has not been as adversarially selected as most other writings by someone about themselves, making it extremely valuable data. (Where data is normally covered up, even small amounts of true data are often very surprising.)
I find the specific update quite useful, including all of the examples. It fits together with Eliezer’s claim (at the end of section 5 here) that you can figure out which experts are right/wrong far more often than you can come up with the correct theory yourself.