some sudden theoretical breakthrough (e.g. on fast matrix multiplication)
These sorts of ideas seem possible, and I’m not willing to discard them as improbable just yet. I think a way to imagine my argument is that I’m saying, “Hold on, why are we assuming that this is the default scenario? I think we should be skeptical by default.” And so in general counterarguments of the form, “But it could be wrong because of this” aren’t great, because something being possible does not imply that it’s likely.
These sorts of ideas seem possible, and I’m not willing to discard them as improbable just yet. I think a way to imagine my argument is that I’m saying, “Hold on, why are we assuming that this is the default scenario? I think we should be skeptical by default.” And so in general counterarguments of the form, “But it could be wrong because of this” aren’t great, because something being possible does not imply that it’s likely.