Interp via model internals is a bit useful now (in mid 2026)
It will be modestly useful in 2029 (assuming the AI 2040 scenario)
It will be very useful in 2035 (assuming the AI 2040 scenario)
(I don’t think this interp will that much be “mech interp” which seems to align with what you are saying.)
Thus, I think this text from AI 2040 that you quote probably somewhat understates how useful interp is at that point in the scenario. Your critique seems reasonable overall, though I’m probably moderately less bullish on interp than you seem to be.
I think I expect:
Interp via model internals is a bit useful now (in mid 2026)
It will be modestly useful in 2029 (assuming the AI 2040 scenario)
It will be very useful in 2035 (assuming the AI 2040 scenario)
(I don’t think this interp will that much be “mech interp” which seems to align with what you are saying.)
Thus, I think this text from AI 2040 that you quote probably somewhat understates how useful interp is at that point in the scenario. Your critique seems reasonable overall, though I’m probably moderately less bullish on interp than you seem to be.