I upvoted this because it was highly amusing—but ultimately it’s silly, a perfect example of how some people can be so sharp that they cut themselves.
I wonder, if instead one-box and two-box for a prize of 100$ or 200$, we had “Selection A: horrible self-mutilation” and “Selection B: one million dollars”, with Prometheus creating only the people that he believed would pick Selection A, and reject Selection B.… would the people that one-box here STILL onebox?
Well, I’d just choose to win instead and thus pick the one million dollars instead of the horrible self-mutilation. I think that’s the sane thing to do—if Prometheus has a 99.99% predictive capacity on this there’ll be 10000 people who’ll select self-mutilation for every one like me who’ll pick the money. But I already know I’m like me, and I’m the one I’m concerned about.
The relevant probability isn’t P(chooses Self-mutilation|Prometheus created him) ~= 0, but rather the P(chooses one million dollars|Is Aris Katsaris) ~= 1.
I upvoted this because it was highly amusing—but ultimately it’s silly, a perfect example of how some people can be so sharp that they cut themselves.
I wonder, if instead one-box and two-box for a prize of 100$ or 200$, we had “Selection A: horrible self-mutilation” and “Selection B: one million dollars”, with Prometheus creating only the people that he believed would pick Selection A, and reject Selection B.… would the people that one-box here STILL onebox?
Well, I’d just choose to win instead and thus pick the one million dollars instead of the horrible self-mutilation. I think that’s the sane thing to do—if Prometheus has a 99.99% predictive capacity on this there’ll be 10000 people who’ll select self-mutilation for every one like me who’ll pick the money. But I already know I’m like me, and I’m the one I’m concerned about.
The relevant probability isn’t P(chooses Self-mutilation|Prometheus created him) ~= 0, but rather the P(chooses one million dollars|Is Aris Katsaris) ~= 1.