I haven’t studied all the details of UDT, so I may have missed an argument for treating it as the default. (I don’t know if that affects the argument or not, since UDT seems a little more complicated than ‘always one-box’.) So far all the cases I’ve seen look like they give us reasons to switch from within ordinary utility-maximizing decision theory—for a particular case or set of cases.
Now if we find ourselves in transparent Newcomb without having made a decision, it seems too late to switch in that way. If we consider the problem beforehand, ordinary decision theory gives us reason to go with UDT iff Omega can actually predict our actions. Evolution can’t. It seems not only possible but common for humans to make choices that don’t maximize reproduction. That seems to settle the matter. Even within UDT I get the feeling that the increased utility from doing as you think best can overcome a slight theoretical decrease in chance of existing.
If evolution could predict the future as well as Omega then logically I’d have an overwhelming chance of “one-boxing”. The actual version of me would call this morally wrong, so UDT might still have a problem there. But creating an issue takes more than just considering parents who proverbially can’t predict jack.
Again, that same logic would seem to lead you to two-box in any variant of transparent Newcomb.
I haven’t studied all the details of UDT, so I may have missed an argument for treating it as the default. (I don’t know if that affects the argument or not, since UDT seems a little more complicated than ‘always one-box’.) So far all the cases I’ve seen look like they give us reasons to switch from within ordinary utility-maximizing decision theory—for a particular case or set of cases.
Now if we find ourselves in transparent Newcomb without having made a decision, it seems too late to switch in that way. If we consider the problem beforehand, ordinary decision theory gives us reason to go with UDT iff Omega can actually predict our actions. Evolution can’t. It seems not only possible but common for humans to make choices that don’t maximize reproduction. That seems to settle the matter. Even within UDT I get the feeling that the increased utility from doing as you think best can overcome a slight theoretical decrease in chance of existing.
If evolution could predict the future as well as Omega then logically I’d have an overwhelming chance of “one-boxing”. The actual version of me would call this morally wrong, so UDT might still have a problem there. But creating an issue takes more than just considering parents who proverbially can’t predict jack.