People often say some variation of “this was a mistake” after misfortune strikes them, but while this conclusion isn’t always wrong, their analysis is inadequate. Pretty much everything you do in life involves risks, sometimes you make a losing bet, and this is completely fine! And, on the flip side, having a crazy gamble pay off doesn’t necessarily vindicate it.
If you’re reasonably sure that your decision was +EV when you made it, the only reason to reconsider it is discovering new information that you should’ve known in advance, whereas its outcome is irrelevant (but very emotionally salient, naturally). In the long run, random variance evens out.
Avoid results-oriented thinking
People often say some variation of “this was a mistake” after misfortune strikes them, but while this conclusion isn’t always wrong, their analysis is inadequate. Pretty much everything you do in life involves risks, sometimes you make a losing bet, and this is completely fine! And, on the flip side, having a crazy gamble pay off doesn’t necessarily vindicate it.
If you’re reasonably sure that your decision was +EV when you made it, the only reason to reconsider it is discovering new information that you should’ve known in advance, whereas its outcome is irrelevant (but very emotionally salient, naturally). In the long run, random variance evens out.