All else being equal, shouldn’t rationalists, almost by definition, win? The only way this wouldn’t happen would be in a contest of pure chance, in which rationality could confer no advantage. It seems like we’re just talking semantics here.
If human beings had perfect control over their minds and bodies—e.g., could tweak System 1 without limit and perform any physically possible act/behavior -- your point would be stronger.
However, as others have mentioned elsewhere, there may be cases where we are just not capable of implementing a strategy that rationality suggests is optimal (e.g., convincingly pretending to be more confident than you are to the point that all relevant System 1 impulses/reactions are those of a person who is naturally overconfident).
It may be the case that an ubermensch rationalist can eventually learn to do anything that can be done via non-rational means, but that’s not clear a priori, especially if we consider finite lifespans and opportunity costs.
Agreed. Particularly in hypothetical cases where one rationally concludes that it would be in their best interest to behave irrationally, e.g., over-confidence in oneself or belief in God. Even if one arrived at those conclusions, it’s not clear to me how anyone could decide to become irrational in those ways. Pascal’s notion of “bootstrapping” oneself into religious belief never struck me as very plausible. Interestingly though, “faking” confidence in oneself often does tend to lead to real confidence via some sort of feedback mechanism, e.g., interactions with women.
All else being equal, shouldn’t rationalists, almost by definition, win? The only way this wouldn’t happen would be in a contest of pure chance, in which rationality could confer no advantage. It seems like we’re just talking semantics here.
If human beings had perfect control over their minds and bodies—e.g., could tweak System 1 without limit and perform any physically possible act/behavior -- your point would be stronger.
However, as others have mentioned elsewhere, there may be cases where we are just not capable of implementing a strategy that rationality suggests is optimal (e.g., convincingly pretending to be more confident than you are to the point that all relevant System 1 impulses/reactions are those of a person who is naturally overconfident).
It may be the case that an ubermensch rationalist can eventually learn to do anything that can be done via non-rational means, but that’s not clear a priori, especially if we consider finite lifespans and opportunity costs.
Agreed. Particularly in hypothetical cases where one rationally concludes that it would be in their best interest to behave irrationally, e.g., over-confidence in oneself or belief in God. Even if one arrived at those conclusions, it’s not clear to me how anyone could decide to become irrational in those ways. Pascal’s notion of “bootstrapping” oneself into religious belief never struck me as very plausible. Interestingly though, “faking” confidence in oneself often does tend to lead to real confidence via some sort of feedback mechanism, e.g., interactions with women.