We’ve managed to put together a databases listing all AI predictions that we could find.
Have you looked separately at the predictions made about milestones that have now happened (e.g. win Jeopardy!, drive in traffic, beat Grand Master/respectable amateur at chess/backgammon/checkers/tic-tac-toe, compute astronomical tables) for comparison with the future/AGI predictions?
I’m especially curious about the data for people who have made both kinds of prediction, what correlations are there, and how the predictions of things-still-to-come look when weighted by accuracy of predictions of things-that-happened-by-now.
Have you looked separately at the predictions made about milestones that have now happened (e.g. win Jeopardy!, drive in traffic, beat Grand Master/respectable amateur at chess/backgammon/checkers/tic-tac-toe, compute astronomical tables) for comparison with the future/AGI predictions?
I’m especially curious about the data for people who have made both kinds of prediction, what correlations are there, and how the predictions of things-still-to-come look when weighted by accuracy of predictions of things-that-happened-by-now.