Have you looked separately at the predictions made about milestones that have now happened (e.g. win Jeopardy!, drive in traffic, beat Grand Master/respectable amateur at chess/backgammon/checkers/tic-tac-toe/WW2, compute astronomical tables) for comparison with the future/AGI predictions?
I’m especially curious about the data for people who have made both kinds of prediction, what correlations are there, and how the predictions of things-still-to-come look when weighted by accuracy of predictions of things-that-happened-by-now.
Have you looked separately at the predictions made about milestones that have now happened (e.g. win Jeopardy!, drive in traffic, beat Grand Master/respectable amateur at chess/backgammon/checkers/tic-tac-toe/WW2, compute astronomical tables) for comparison with the future/AGI predictions?
I’m especially curious about the data for people who have made both kinds of prediction, what correlations are there, and how the predictions of things-still-to-come look when weighted by accuracy of predictions of things-that-happened-by-now.