I’m trying to use the outside view to combat it. It is hard for me to think up examples of experts making more extreme-sounding claims than interested amateurs. The only argument the other way that I can think of is that AI itself is so crazy that seeing it occur in less that 100 years is the extreme position, and the other way around is moderate, but I don’t find that very convincing.
In addition, I don’t see reason to believe I’m different from lukeprog or handoflixue.
Philosophy experts are very fond of saying AI is impossible, neuroscientist experts seem to often proclaim it’ll take centuries… By the time you break it down into categories and consider the different audiences and expert cultures, I think we have too little data to say much.
I’m trying to use the outside view to combat it. It is hard for me to think up examples of experts making more extreme-sounding claims than interested amateurs. The only argument the other way that I can think of is that AI itself is so crazy that seeing it occur in less that 100 years is the extreme position, and the other way around is moderate, but I don’t find that very convincing.
In addition, I don’t see reason to believe I’m different from lukeprog or handoflixue.
Philosophy experts are very fond of saying AI is impossible, neuroscientist experts seem to often proclaim it’ll take centuries… By the time you break it down into categories and consider the different audiences and expert cultures, I think we have too little data to say much.