I think that’s an element in Hinge #3. While AI task lengths remain short (minutes to hours), AI is basically just a tool, though one that may still boost productivity. Once they reach days, human workers need to turn into managers-of-AI, so AI become a productivity multiplier but not a replacement. Once AI task lengths reach weeks or months, it become plausible that AI can manage AI, and we’re starting to look at full replacement.
Yes—the general argument is “task length isn’t sufficiently correlated with actual use for remote work, so you also need to look at other things” (see the EpochAI post on this)
I think that’s an element in Hinge #3. While AI task lengths remain short (minutes to hours), AI is basically just a tool, though one that may still boost productivity. Once they reach days, human workers need to turn into managers-of-AI, so AI become a productivity multiplier but not a replacement. Once AI task lengths reach weeks or months, it become plausible that AI can manage AI, and we’re starting to look at full replacement.
Yes—the general argument is “task length isn’t sufficiently correlated with actual use for remote work, so you also need to look at other things” (see the EpochAI post on this)