Conchis, I didn’t get the impression that a doubt more often downgrades than it upgrades, since you can just as easily doubt a low estimation as a high one, and since you can express any probability of X greater than .5 as one of ~X under .5. Someone can just as easily doubt their atheism as they can their theism.
But the doubts could be asymmetrical. What about a path of investigation (POI) that had a 10% chance of increasing you estimation by .3 and a 90% chance of lowering it by .03? (Those numbers might not actually be balanced, but I think you get the idea.)
Conchis, I didn’t get the impression that a doubt more often downgrades than it upgrades, since you can just as easily doubt a low estimation as a high one, and since you can express any probability of X greater than .5 as one of ~X under .5. Someone can just as easily doubt their atheism as they can their theism.
But the doubts could be asymmetrical. What about a path of investigation (POI) that had a 10% chance of increasing you estimation by .3 and a 90% chance of lowering it by .03? (Those numbers might not actually be balanced, but I think you get the idea.)