Directly using the Laplace rule of succession on the sample space A \tensor B gives weights proportional to:
(A,B): 3 (A, ~B): 1 (~A, B): 1 (~A, ~B): 1
Conditioning on ~A, P(B|~A) = 1⁄2. Assuming independence does make a significant difference on this little data.
Directly using the Laplace rule of succession on the sample space A \tensor B gives weights proportional to:
Conditioning on ~A, P(B|~A) = 1⁄2. Assuming independence does make a significant difference on this little data.