Pascal’s Mugging. The problem is that the probability “if I don’t pay this person five dollars, there will be a zillion sufferings in the world” existed before this person told you about it. This probability has always existed. Just as the probability “if I pay this person five dollars, there will be a zillion sufferings in the world” has always existed. Just as the probability “if I raise my right hand, the universe will disappear” has always existed. Just as the probability “if I don’t raise my right hand, the universe will disappear” has always existed. You can justify absolutely any action in this way. This is how obsessive-compulsive disorders work. What equally strongly supports any strategy actually supports no strategy. These probabilities cancel each other out. And the fact that we know the possible pragmatic reason for the words of the person who asks us for five dollars makes the probability of his words being true lower than the opposite probability.
Pascal’s Mugging.
The problem is that the probability “if I don’t pay this person five dollars, there will be a zillion sufferings in the world” existed before this person told you about it.
This probability has always existed.
Just as the probability “if I pay this person five dollars, there will be a zillion sufferings in the world” has always existed.
Just as the probability “if I raise my right hand, the universe will disappear” has always existed.
Just as the probability “if I don’t raise my right hand, the universe will disappear” has always existed.
You can justify absolutely any action in this way.
This is how obsessive-compulsive disorders work.
What equally strongly supports any strategy actually supports no strategy.
These probabilities cancel each other out. And the fact that we know the possible pragmatic reason for the words of the person who asks us for five dollars makes the probability of his words being true lower than the opposite probability.