How much leverage for one project can a WBE transition provide, depending on what? For example, if WBE transition starts slowly, a possible speedup of a FAI project is matched by that of AGI projects, and so doesn’t translate into greater amount of research time. This argues for discouraging early WBE, so that it would allow significant speedup shortly after it’s ready.
What can make a FAI project more likely to win the WBE race, or equivalently the winner of the WBE race to end up working on a FAI project? Mainstream status and acceptance of the UFAI risk idea and enough FAI ideas to form a sane problem statement, and existence of well-respected high quality texts and experts on the topic seems like something that could help. Alternatively (and in that case concurrently), if a FAI project has enough funding, far beyond what’s currently possible, it could try to maneuver itself into a winning position.
How much leverage for one project can a WBE transition provide, depending on what? For example, if WBE transition starts slowly, a possible speedup of a FAI project is matched by that of AGI projects, and so doesn’t translate into greater amount of research time. This argues for discouraging early WBE, so that it would allow significant speedup shortly after it’s ready.
What can make a FAI project more likely to win the WBE race, or equivalently the winner of the WBE race to end up working on a FAI project? Mainstream status and acceptance of the UFAI risk idea and enough FAI ideas to form a sane problem statement, and existence of well-respected high quality texts and experts on the topic seems like something that could help. Alternatively (and in that case concurrently), if a FAI project has enough funding, far beyond what’s currently possible, it could try to maneuver itself into a winning position.