playing this game with a single die roll and all possible values of k recovers the Sleeping Beauty problem
I have no idea what this sentence is supposed to mean.
I’ve done the same work of formalization for PSB that I did on AlephNeil’s revival question and the joint distribution table does have the same structure, in particular I agree that 1⁄21 is the right answer in PSB. So I agree that this could be a promising start—but it’s unclear (and was also unclear with AlephNeil’s question) how we get from there to SB.
Given that structure for the joint probability distribution I get results which agree with neq1′s answer of 2⁄22 in the variant described here and don’t know where you’re getting 1⁄21 from.
I would like to strongly recommend that we settle this by writing out the full joint probability distribution table (for N more manageable than 20), this isn’t so hard to do as long as we’re playing with discrete variables with not too many values.
I have no idea what this sentence is supposed to mean.
I’ve done the same work of formalization for PSB that I did on AlephNeil’s revival question and the joint distribution table does have the same structure, in particular I agree that 1⁄21 is the right answer in PSB. So I agree that this could be a promising start—but it’s unclear (and was also unclear with AlephNeil’s question) how we get from there to SB.
Given that structure for the joint probability distribution I get results which agree with neq1′s answer of 2⁄22 in the variant described here and don’t know where you’re getting 1⁄21 from.
I would like to strongly recommend that we settle this by writing out the full joint probability distribution table (for N more manageable than 20), this isn’t so hard to do as long as we’re playing with discrete variables with not too many values.