You might want to specify that when you talk about “donations” you are referring to charitable donations rather than campaign donations. It might just be me, but the political priming made this distinction less obvious than it probably should have been.
Ah! Yeah, I didn’t get this distinction on an admittedly casual readthrough, and was trying to figure out why the 55% confidence even factored in, since presumably if I’m wrong about who the best candidate is when I vote I would counterfactually be equally wrong when I donate, so the 55% factor would apply equally to both sides of the inequality.
But this makes more sense.
Of course, my confidence that my charitable donation is going to somewhere valuable is similarly a factor, and might be less than 55%. (Though I do realize that by local social convention this is a solved problem.)
You might want to specify that when you talk about “donations” you are referring to charitable donations rather than campaign donations. It might just be me, but the political priming made this distinction less obvious than it probably should have been.
Wow, thanks for this! I just changed the title.
Ah! Yeah, I didn’t get this distinction on an admittedly casual readthrough, and was trying to figure out why the 55% confidence even factored in, since presumably if I’m wrong about who the best candidate is when I vote I would counterfactually be equally wrong when I donate, so the 55% factor would apply equally to both sides of the inequality.
But this makes more sense.
Of course, my confidence that my charitable donation is going to somewhere valuable is similarly a factor, and might be less than 55%. (Though I do realize that by local social convention this is a solved problem.)