I’d add that it isn’t obvious whether people working “in the field” are more attuned to small probability failure modes than, say GiveWell. One reason is that these people only tend to know about small probability failure modes within their own field, and certain very closely related fields. So they don’t have a strong basis for comparison. In addition, workers may only know about the low probability failure modes within their own part of the operation, so they may have less of a sense than charity evaluators of how it all hangs together.
I agree with this point as stated, but think that by thinking about how it all hangs together (or by listening to those who have) before choosing a career trajectory and by choosing a career that leaves sufficiently many options open, one can “have one’s cake and eat it too” — getting getting both the epistemic benefits from being on the ground and the epistemic benefits from looking at things in a broader way.
I agree. The best cogs understand their role in the machine, which requires intimate understanding of the machine as a whole. AND they can feel what’s going on as it happens.
I’d add that it isn’t obvious whether people working “in the field” are more attuned to small probability failure modes than, say GiveWell. One reason is that these people only tend to know about small probability failure modes within their own field, and certain very closely related fields. So they don’t have a strong basis for comparison. In addition, workers may only know about the low probability failure modes within their own part of the operation, so they may have less of a sense than charity evaluators of how it all hangs together.
I agree with this point as stated, but think that by thinking about how it all hangs together (or by listening to those who have) before choosing a career trajectory and by choosing a career that leaves sufficiently many options open, one can “have one’s cake and eat it too” — getting getting both the epistemic benefits from being on the ground and the epistemic benefits from looking at things in a broader way.
I agree. The best cogs understand their role in the machine, which requires intimate understanding of the machine as a whole. AND they can feel what’s going on as it happens.