First of all, “the most likely outcome at given level of specificity” is not equal to “outcome with the most probability mass”. I.e., if one outcome has probability 2% and the rest of outcomes 1%, 98% is still “other outcome than the most likely”.
The second is that no, it’s not what evolutionary theory predicts. Most of traits are not adaptive, but randomly fixed, because if all traits are adaptive, then ~all mutations are detrimental. Because mutations are detrimental, they need to be removed from gene pool by preventing carriers from reproduction. Because most detrimental mutations do not kill carrier immediately, they have chance to randomly spread in popularion. Because we have “almost all mutations are detrimental” and “everybody has mutations in offspring”, for anything like human genome and human procreation pattern we have hard ceiling on how much of genome can be adaptive (which is like 20%).
Real evolutionary theory prediction is like “some random trait get fixed in the species with the most ecological power (i.e., ASI) and this trait is amortized against all the galaxies”.
I somewhat agree with the nuance you add here—especially the doubt you cast on the claim that effective traits will usually become popular but not necessarily the majority/dominant. And I agree with your analysis of the human case: in random, genetic evolution, a lot of our traits are random and maybe fewer than we think are adaptive.
Makes me curious what the conditions in a given thing’s evolution that determine the balance between adaptive characteristics and detrimental characteristics.
I’d guess that randomness in mutation is a big factor. The way human genes evolve over generations seem to me a good example of random mutations. But the way an individual person evolves over the course of their life, as they’re parented/taught… “mutations” to their person are still somewhat random but maybe relatively more intentional/intelligently designed (by parents, teacher, etc). And I could imagine the way a self-improving superintelligence would evolve to be even more intentional, where each self-mutation has some sort of smart reason for being attempted.
All to say, maybe the randomness vs. intentionality of an organism’s mutations determine what portion of their traits end up being adaptive. (hypothesis: mutations more intentional > greater % of traits are adaptive)
First of all, “the most likely outcome at given level of specificity” is not equal to “outcome with the most probability mass”. I.e., if one outcome has probability 2% and the rest of outcomes 1%, 98% is still “other outcome than the most likely”.
The second is that no, it’s not what evolutionary theory predicts. Most of traits are not adaptive, but randomly fixed, because if all traits are adaptive, then ~all mutations are detrimental. Because mutations are detrimental, they need to be removed from gene pool by preventing carriers from reproduction. Because most detrimental mutations do not kill carrier immediately, they have chance to randomly spread in popularion. Because we have “almost all mutations are detrimental” and “everybody has mutations in offspring”, for anything like human genome and human procreation pattern we have hard ceiling on how much of genome can be adaptive (which is like 20%).
Real evolutionary theory prediction is like “some random trait get fixed in the species with the most ecological power (i.e., ASI) and this trait is amortized against all the galaxies”.
I somewhat agree with the nuance you add here—especially the doubt you cast on the claim that effective traits will usually become popular but not necessarily the majority/dominant. And I agree with your analysis of the human case: in random, genetic evolution, a lot of our traits are random and maybe fewer than we think are adaptive.
Makes me curious what the conditions in a given thing’s evolution that determine the balance between adaptive characteristics and detrimental characteristics.
I’d guess that randomness in mutation is a big factor. The way human genes evolve over generations seem to me a good example of random mutations. But the way an individual person evolves over the course of their life, as they’re parented/taught… “mutations” to their person are still somewhat random but maybe relatively more intentional/intelligently designed (by parents, teacher, etc). And I could imagine the way a self-improving superintelligence would evolve to be even more intentional, where each self-mutation has some sort of smart reason for being attempted.
All to say, maybe the randomness vs. intentionality of an organism’s mutations determine what portion of their traits end up being adaptive. (hypothesis: mutations more intentional > greater % of traits are adaptive)