Does it factor in forecasting that was itself classified?
ETA: The forecast of someone in the Manhattan Project about nuclear bombs would’ve been much more accurate than almost anyone else’s but those forecasts would’ve stayed entirely in the organization.
Does it factor in forecasting that was itself classified?
ETA: The forecast of someone in the Manhattan Project about nuclear bombs would’ve been much more accurate than almost anyone else’s but those forecasts would’ve stayed entirely in the organization.
Presumably, in that case, access does help. But typically it’s more important to forecast what others will do than what your country will do.
I later googled Tetlock and saw that it was about far more general forecasting than what I think of when I think of insider information.