Some failure modes in reasoning point specifically away from truth, rather than just adding noise to beliefs. It seems uncommon that these are predictably stronger than the pressure for truth, so I agree movements that backfired usually just got unlucky and so made one or two big mistakes.
Some failure modes in reasoning point specifically away from truth, rather than just adding noise to beliefs.
It seems uncommon that these are predictably stronger than the pressure for truth, so I agree movements that backfired usually just got unlucky and so made one or two big mistakes.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qTSyxtWRCpi3fcmyb/wrong-answer-bias