Re: your 4, it seems to me that value has been accruing to model builders over semiconductor companies at a faster rate in the status quo. Anthropic’s valuation has growth by ~50x in the last 2 years whereas, for example, Nvidia’s has only grown by ~2.5x in this time. The chip makers just had a much larger preexisting business. So I don’t see a trend reversal being needed.
Re: your 4, it seems to me that value has been accruing to model builders over semiconductor companies at a faster rate in the status quo. Anthropic’s valuation has growth by ~50x in the last 2 years whereas, for example, Nvidia’s has only grown by ~2.5x in this time. The chip makers just had a much larger preexisting business. So I don’t see a trend reversal being needed.