I’m having trouble understanding how you (and buybuydandavis) see this puzzle as illustrating (or evidencing?) a subjective approach to probability. Wouldn’t it be perfectly solvable in the frequency/propensity approaches in just the same way? Conditional probability and the Bayes rule work the same way everywhere.
(I haven’t read Jaynes yet)
(Also enjoyed working out your puzzle, and reposted it in my blog, hope you don’t mind)
Certainly don’t mind. It’s certainly solvable with a propensity approach, it’s just that the problem description points you toward the wrong kind of propensity: there really is an absolute proportion of coins to envelopes that has strictly decreased, but that’s not the relevant value.
I’m having trouble understanding how you (and buybuydandavis) see this puzzle as illustrating (or evidencing?) a subjective approach to probability. Wouldn’t it be perfectly solvable in the frequency/propensity approaches in just the same way? Conditional probability and the Bayes rule work the same way everywhere.
(I haven’t read Jaynes yet) (Also enjoyed working out your puzzle, and reposted it in my blog, hope you don’t mind)
Certainly don’t mind. It’s certainly solvable with a propensity approach, it’s just that the problem description points you toward the wrong kind of propensity: there really is an absolute proportion of coins to envelopes that has strictly decreased, but that’s not the relevant value.