The main reason for past discussions of this question has been to upperbound the amount of compute necessary to create AGI: “if evolution could create humans with X yottaflops total, then we can certainly create an AGI with <=X yottaflops—if only by literally simulating molecule by molecule the evolution of humanity”. Basically, the worst possible biological anchor estimate. (Personally, I think it’s so vacuous an upper bound as to not have been worth the energy which has already been put into thinking about it.)
Hmm how would you define “percentage of possibilities explored”?
I suggested several metrics, but I am actively looking for additional ones, especially for the epigenome and for communication at the individual level (e.g. chemical signals between fungi and plants, animal calls, human language).
The book “Chemical Evolution: Origins of the Elements, Molecules and Living Systems” by Stephen F. Mason might well contain the kinds of calculations you are looking for.
This is a poorly thought out question.
Evolution implies a direction of travel driven by selection pressure, e.g., comparative fitness within an environment.
A sequence of random processes that are not driven by some selection pressure is just, well, random.
What is the metric for computational effort?
Are you actually interested in computational resources consumed, or percentage of possibilities explored?
The main reason for past discussions of this question has been to upperbound the amount of compute necessary to create AGI: “if evolution could create humans with X yottaflops total, then we can certainly create an AGI with <=X yottaflops—if only by literally simulating molecule by molecule the evolution of humanity”. Basically, the worst possible biological anchor estimate. (Personally, I think it’s so vacuous an upper bound as to not have been worth the energy which has already been put into thinking about it.)
AGI timeline is not my motivation, but the links look helpful, thanks!
Hmm how would you define “percentage of possibilities explored”?
I suggested several metrics, but I am actively looking for additional ones, especially for the epigenome and for communication at the individual level (e.g. chemical signals between fungi and plants, animal calls, human language).
Chemical space, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_space, is one candidate for a metric of the possibilities.
The book “Chemical Evolution: Origins of the Elements, Molecules and Living Systems” by Stephen F. Mason might well contain the kinds of calculations you are looking for.