My intuition is that 3.3 gaining more traction would be good for the world, because to me a) that seems most realistic based on the evidence I’ve seen so far and how I interpret it, and b) least problematic in case it’s wrong and we live in a world where alignment isn’t hard and organisations act competently. What reasons make your intuition point towards 3.2?
Generally I think it’s good for people to try to be as accurate as possible and that’s what I most associate with 3.2. That said these clusters are a big oversimplification and I think there’s people with good reasoning that end up in 3.3. And in practice 3.3 might be a reasonable attitude just from a perspective of a sane society wanting to address the alignment is hard and orgs are incapable scenario anyway
My intuition is that 3.3 gaining more traction would be good for the world, because to me a) that seems most realistic based on the evidence I’ve seen so far and how I interpret it, and b) least problematic in case it’s wrong and we live in a world where alignment isn’t hard and organisations act competently. What reasons make your intuition point towards 3.2?
Generally I think it’s good for people to try to be as accurate as possible and that’s what I most associate with 3.2. That said these clusters are a big oversimplification and I think there’s people with good reasoning that end up in 3.3. And in practice 3.3 might be a reasonable attitude just from a perspective of a sane society wanting to address the alignment is hard and orgs are incapable scenario anyway