I am a psychiatry resident, so my vibes are slightly better than the norm! In my career so far, I haven’t actually met or heard of a single psychotic person being admitted to either hospital in my British city who even my colleagues claimed were triggered by a chafbot.
It can vary widely from country to country, and then there’s a lot of heterogeneity within each.
To sum up:
About 1⁄3800 to 1⁄5000 people develop new psychosis each year. And about 1 in 250 people have ongoing psychosis at any point in time.
I feel quite happy calling that a high base rate. As the first link alludes, episodes of psychosis may be detected by statements along the lines of:
>For example, “Flying mutant alien chimpanzees have harvested my kidneys to feed my goldfish.” Non-bizarre delusions are potentially possible, although extraordinarily unlikely. For example: “The CIA is watching me 24 hours a day by satellite surveillance.” The delusional disorder consists of non-bizarre delusions.
If a patient of mine were to say such a thing, I think it would be rather unfair of me to pin the blame for their condition on chimpanzees, the practice of organ transplants, Big Aquarium, American intelligence agencies, or Maxar.
(While the CIA certainly didn’t help my case with the whole MK ULTRA thing, that’s sixty years back. I don’t think local zoos or pet shops are implicated.)
Other reasons for doubt:
Case reports ≠ incidence. The handful of papers describing “ChatGPT-induced psychosis” are case studies and at risk of ecological fallacies.
People already at ultra-high risk for psychosis are over-represented among heavy chatbot users (loneliness, sleep disruption, etc.). Establishing causality would require a cohort design that controls for prior clinical risk, none exist yet.
I am a psychiatry resident, so my vibes are slightly better than the norm! In my career so far, I haven’t actually met or heard of a single psychotic person being admitted to either hospital in my British city who even my colleagues claimed were triggered by a chafbot.
But the actual figures have very wide error bars, one source claims around 50/100k for new episodes of first-time psychosis. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK546579/
But others claim around:
>The pooled incidence of all psychotic disorders was 26·6 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 22·0-31·7).
That’s from a large meta-analysis in the Lancet
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31054641/
It can vary widely from country to country, and then there’s a lot of heterogeneity within each.
To sum up:
About 1⁄3800 to 1⁄5000 people develop new psychosis each year. And about 1 in 250 people have ongoing psychosis at any point in time.
I feel quite happy calling that a high base rate. As the first link alludes, episodes of psychosis may be detected by statements along the lines of:
>For example, “Flying mutant alien chimpanzees have harvested my kidneys to feed my goldfish.” Non-bizarre delusions are potentially possible, although extraordinarily unlikely. For example: “The CIA is watching me 24 hours a day by satellite surveillance.” The delusional disorder consists of non-bizarre delusions.
If a patient of mine were to say such a thing, I think it would be rather unfair of me to pin the blame for their condition on chimpanzees, the practice of organ transplants, Big Aquarium, American intelligence agencies, or Maxar.
(While the CIA certainly didn’t help my case with the whole MK ULTRA thing, that’s sixty years back. I don’t think local zoos or pet shops are implicated.)
Other reasons for doubt:
Case reports ≠ incidence. The handful of papers describing “ChatGPT-induced psychosis” are case studies and at risk of ecological fallacies.
People already at ultra-high risk for psychosis are over-represented among heavy chatbot users (loneliness, sleep disruption, etc.). Establishing causality would require a cohort design that controls for prior clinical risk, none exist yet.