I don’t think parallelism works very well among employees while it works great for compute.
I agree that labor is probably a somewhat more important input (as in, if you offered an AI company the ability to make its workers 2x faster in serial speed or 2x more compute, they would do better if they took the 2x serial speed. I’d guess the AI companies are roughly indifferent between 1.6x serial speed and 2x compute, but more like 1.35x vs 2x is also plausible.
It seems plausible to me that well enforced export controls cut compute by a factor of 3 for AI companies in china, and a larger factor is plausible longer term. This would substantially reduce the rate of algorithmic progress IMO.
I don’t think parallelism works very well among employees while it works great for compute.
I agree that labor is probably a somewhat more important input (as in, if you offered an AI company the ability to make its workers 2x faster in serial speed or 2x more compute, they would do better if they took the 2x serial speed. I’d guess the AI companies are roughly indifferent between 1.6x serial speed and 2x compute, but more like 1.35x vs 2x is also plausible.
It seems plausible to me that well enforced export controls cut compute by a factor of 3 for AI companies in china, and a larger factor is plausible longer term. This would substantially reduce the rate of algorithmic progress IMO.