Yeah, this seems to be a big part of it. If you instead switch it to the probability at market midpoint, Manifold is basically perfectly calibrated, and Kalshi is if anything overconfident (Metaculus still looks underconfident overall).
Yeah, this seems to be a big part of it. If you instead switch it to the probability at market midpoint, Manifold is basically perfectly calibrated, and Kalshi is if anything overconfident (Metaculus still looks underconfident overall).