Betting and forecasting
This is an event for those who like to bet and for those who are interested in prediction markets or using betting as an aid to become better at forecasting the future.
I will give a very brief introduction to the model used by Philip Tetlock in Superforecasting on how to become a better forecaster and a little bit on how prediction markets might be of benefit for our society.
The main focus is on what kinds of predictions we might have and how these can be operationalized into something one can bet on. For instance:
- how might one bet on the progress/decline of stock markets (what index to use?)
- how can you bet on the outcome of an experimental study (study design and possibly using third-parties to settle disputes)
- or how to make a bet if you predict that society or the human race might be destroyed, and winning a billion dollars is not so important if all else is lost.
And then, of course, we’ll make some bets!
The event will be in Swedish or English.