Wei Dai(Wei Dai)
A tale from Communist China
[Question] Have epistemic conditions always been this bad?
UDT shows that decision theory is more puzzling than ever
Morality is Scary
Forum participation as a research strategy
Meta Questions about Metaphilosophy
The Nature of Offense
Beyond Astronomical Waste
AI Safety “Success Stories”
Shut Up and Divide?
[Question] Where are people thinking and talking about global coordination for AI safety?
A broad basin of attraction around human values?
It was easier for Eliezer Yudkowsky to reformulate decision theory to exclude time than to buy a new watch.
Eliezer Yudkowsky’s favorite sport is black hole diving. His information density is so great that no black hole can absorb him, so he just bounces right off the event horizon.
God desperately wants to believe that when Eliezer Yudkowsky says “God doesn’t exist,” it’s just good-natured teasing.
Never go in against Eliezer Yudkowsky when anything is on the line.
[Question] Why is so much discussion happening in private Google Docs?
(Tangentially) If users are allowed to ban other users from commenting on their posts, how can I tell when the lack of criticism in the comments of some post means that nobody wanted to criticize it (which is a very useful signal that I would want to update on), or that the author has banned some or all of their most prominent/frequent critics? In addition, I think many users may be mislead by lack of criticism if they’re simply not aware of the second possibility or have forgotten it. (I think I knew it but it hasn’t entered my conscious awareness for a while, until I read this post today.)
(Assuming there’s not a good answer to the above concerns) I think I would prefer to change this feature/rule to something like allowing the author of a post to “hide” commenters or individual comments, which means that those comments are collapsed by default (and marked as “hidden by the post author”) but can be individually expanded, and each user can set an option to always expand those comments for themselves.
The option I bought is up 700% since I bought them, implying that as of 2/10/2020 the market thought there was less than 1⁄8 chance things would be as bad as they are today. At least for me this puts a final nail in the coffin of EMH.
Added on Mar 24: Just in case this thread goes viral at some point, to prevent a potential backlash against me or LW (due to being perceived as caring more about making money than saving lives), let me note that on Feb 8 I thought of and collected a number of ideas for preventing or mitigating the pandemic that I foresaw and subsequently sent them to several people working in pandemic preparedness, and followed up with several other ideas as I came across them.
- The EMH Aten’t Dead by (15 May 2020 20:44 UTC; 194 points)
- Zoom Technologies, Inc. vs. the Efficient Markets Hypothesis by (11 May 2020 6:00 UTC; 72 points)
- Coronavirus: Justified Key Insights Thread by (13 Apr 2020 22:40 UTC; 50 points)
- 's comment on March Coronavirus Open Thread by (13 Mar 2020 21:59 UTC; 33 points)
Lessons I draw from this history:
To predict a political movement, you have to understand its social dynamics and not just trust what people say about their intentions, even if they’re totally sincere.
Short term trends can be misleading so don’t update too much on them, especially in a positive direction.
Lots of people who thought they were on the right side of history actually weren’t.
Becoming true believers in some ideology probably isn’t good for you or the society you’re hoping to help. It’s crucial to maintain empirical and moral uncertainties.
Risk tails are fatter than people think.