Thank you. I tried using http://archive.fo/ , but no luck.
I’ll add https://web.archive.org/ to bookmarks too.
Thank you. I tried using http://archive.fo/ , but no luck.
I’ll add https://web.archive.org/ to bookmarks too.
Related:
“Sometimes a hypocrite is nothing more than a man in the process of changing.” ― Brandon Sanderson, Oathbringer (By Dalinar Kholin)
It seems less and less like a Prisoner’s Dilemma the more I think about it. Chances are, “oops” I messed up.
I still feel like the thing with famous names like Sam Harris, is that there is a “drag” force on his penetration on the culture nowadays because there is a bunch of history that has been (incorrectly) publicized. His name is associated with controversy; despite his best to avoid it.
I feel like you need to overcome a “barrier to entry” when listening to him. Unlike Eliezer, who’s public image (in my limited opinion) is actually new user friendly.
Somehow this all is meant to tie back to Prisoner’s Dilemmas. And in my head, it for some reason does. Perhaps I ought to prune that connection. Let me try my best to fully explain that link:
It’s a multi stage “chess game” in where you engage with the ideas that you hear from someone like Sam Harris; but there is doubt because there is a (misconception) of him saying “Muslims are bad” (a trivialization of the argument). What makes me think of a Prisoner’s Dilemma is this: you have to engage into “cooperate” or “don’t cooperate” game with the message based on nothing more or less then reputation of the source.
Sam doesn’t necessarily broadcast his basic values regularly that I can see. He’s a thoughtful, quite rational person; but I feel like he forgets that his image needs work. He needs to do qumbaiya as it were, once a while. To reaffirm his basic beliefs in life and it’s preciousness. (And I bet if I look, I’d find some, but it rarely percolates up on the feed).
Anyway. Chances are I am wrong on using the concept of Prisoner’s Dilemma here. Sorry.
35 − 8 = 20 + (15 − 8)
Wow. I’ve never even conceived of this (on it’s own or) as a simplification.
My entire life has been the latter simplification method.
I found a reference to a very nice overview for the mathematical motivations of Occam’s Razor on wikipedia.
It’s Chapter 28: Model Comparison and Occam’s Razor; from (page 355 of) Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms (legally free to read pdf) by David J. C. MacKay.
The Solomonoff Induction stuff went over my head, but this overview’s talk of trade-offs between communicating increasing numbers of model parameters vs having to communicate less residuals (ie. offsets from real data); was very informative.
I suggest the definition that biases are whatever cause people to adopt invalid arguments.
False or incomplete/insufficient data can cause the adoption of invalid arguments.
Contrast this with:
The control group was told only the background information known to the city when it decided not to hire a bridge watcher. The experimental group was given this information, plus the fact that a flood had actually occurred. Instructions stated the city was negligent if the foreseeable probability of flooding was greater than 10%. 76% of the control group concluded the flood was so unlikely that no precautions were necessary; 57% of the experimental group concluded the flood was so likely that failure to take precautions was legally negligent. A third experimental group was told the outcome and also explicitly instructed to avoid hindsight bias, which made no difference: 56% concluded the city was legally negligent.
I.e. on average, it doesn’t matter if people try to avoid hindsight bias. “prior outcome knowledge” literally corresponds to conclusion “prior outcome should’ve been deemed very likely”.
To avoid it, you literally have to INSIST on NOT knowing what actually happened, if you aim to accurately represent the decision making process that actually happened.
Or if you do have the knowledge, you might result in having to force yourself to assign an extra 1 : 10 odds factor against the actual outcome (or worse) in order to compensate.
without limit or upper bound: link is 404 page not found.
Excellent write up.
“place far more trust in the human+AI system to be metaphilosophically competent enough to safely recursively self-improve ” : I think that’s a Problem enough People need to solve (to possible partial maximum) in their own minds, and only they should be “Programming” a real AI.
Sadly this won’t be the case =/.
Somehow, he has to populate the objective function whose maximum is what he will rationally try to do. How he ends up assigning those intrinsic values relies on methods of argument that are neither deductive nor observational.
In your opinion, does this relate in any way to the “lack of free will” arguments, like those alleged by Sam Harris? The whole: I can ask you about what your favourite movie is, and you will think of some. You will even try to justify your choices if asked about it, but ultimately you had no control of what movies popped into your head.
I shall not make the mistake again!
You probably will. I think this biases thing doesn’t disappear even when you’re aware of it. It’s a generic human feature. I think self-critical awareness will always slip at the crucial moment; it’s important to remember this and acknowledge it. Big things vs small things as it were.
Dead link to “scientists shouldn’t even try to take ethical responsibility for their work” link is now here
Umm, it’s a real thing. ECC memory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ECC_memory I’m sure it isn’t 100% foolproof (coincidentally the point of this article) but I imagine it reduces error probability by orders of magnitude.
That’s one large part of the traditional approach to the Santa-ism, yeah. But, it doesn’t have to be, as Eliezer describes in the top comment.
Upvoted for the “oops” moment.
LessWrong FAQ
Hmm, couldn’t find a link directly on this site. Figured someone else might want it too (although a google search did kind of solve it instantly).
I am guessing that the link what truth is. is meant to be http://yudkowsky.net/rational/the-simple-truth
Yeah, if you use religious or faith baised terminology, it might trigger negative signals (downvotes). Though whether that is because the information you meant to convey was being disagreed with, or it’s because the statements themselves are actually overall more ambiguous, would be harder to distinguish.
Some kinds of careful resoning processes vibe with the community, and imop yours is that kind. Questioning each step separatetly on it’s merits, being sufficiently skeptical of premises leading to conclusions.
Anyways, back to the subject of f and inferring it’s features. We are definitely having trouble drawing out f out of the human brain in a systematic falsiable way.
Whether or not it is physically possible to infer it, or it’s features, or how it is constructed; i.e whether it possible at all, that subject seems a little uninteresting to me. Humans are perfectly capable of pulling made up functions out of their ass. I kind of feel like all the gold will go to first group of people who come up with processes of constructing f in coherent predictable ways. Such that different initial conditions, when iterated over the process, produce predictably similiar f.
We might then try observe such process throughout people’s lifetimes, and sort of guess that a version of the same process is going on in the human brain. But nothing about how that will develop is readily apparent to me. This is just my own imagination producing what seems like a plausible way forward.
I feel like there are local optima. That getting to a different stable equilibrium involves having to “get worse” for a period of time. To question existing paradigms and assumptions. I.e. performing the update feels terrible, in that you get periodic glimpses of “oh, my current methodology is clearly inadequate”, which feels understandably crushing.
The “bad mental health/instability” is an interim step where you are trying to integrate your previous emotive models of certain situations, with newer models that appeal to you intelligently (i.e. feels like they ought to be the correct models). There is conflict when you try to integrate those, which is often meta discouraging.
If you’re curious about what could possibly be happening in the brain when that process occurs, I would recommend Mental Mountains by Scott A., or even better the whole Multiagent Models of Mind sequence.
I found the character sheet system to be very helpful. In two words its just a ranked list of “features”/goals you’re working towards, with a comment slot (it’s just a google sheet).
I could list personal improvements I was able to gain from the regular use of this tool, like weight loss/exercise habits etc., but that feels too much like bragging. Also, I can’t prove correlation vs causation.
The cohort system provides a cool social way to keep yourself accountable to yourself.