In digital markets with extremely quick liquidity like the stock exchange, Is investing based on macroeconomic factors and >megatrends foolhardy?
One shouldn’t expect to systematically beat the market without privileged information. But even “trying to beat the market” (depending on what exactly that strategy entails) or doing what you describe is often better than what most people do in terms of actually growing their savings. Financial securities (especially stocks) have high enough long-run expected returns such that a “strategy” of routinely accidentally slightly overpaying for them and holding them still results in a lot more money than not investing at all.
Is it only sensible to invest when one has privellaged information including via analysis of public data at a level no one else >has done?
Not investing is far worse than shoving your money into random stocks and committing to reinvest all dividends for the next 50 years.
Actuarial tables give him a roughly 2% chance of dying before the election.