Tim Liptrot

[Question] If the re­pro­duc­tion num­ber is so­cially “con­trol­led” to its in­flec­tion point 1, what are the eth­i­cal and pre­dic­tive im­pli­ca­tions?

The af­fect heuris­tic and study­ing autocracies

[Question] Non offen­sive word for peo­ple who are not sin­gle-mag­is­terium-Bayes thinkers

Im­prov­ing lo­cal gov­er­nance in frag­ile states—prac­ti­cal les­sons from the field

My pa­per was sig­nal­ling the whole time—Robin Han­son wins again

Sta­tus for sta­tus sake is a fact of poli­ti­cal life

[Question] De­ci­sion the­ory anal­y­sis of whether vac­cines should be dis­tributed prior to the com­ple­tion of stage three tri­als please

Schedul­ing Al­gorithm for a PhD Student

Le­gal­ize Black­mail: An Example

[Question] Why are deaths not in­creas­ing with in­fec­tions in the US?

[Question] Share your per­sonal sto­ries of pre­dic­tion markets

Two rea­sons to ex­pect a peace­ful change of power in the US

[Question] Please steel­man the ac­cu­sa­tions of elec­tion fraud

How can we lobby to get a vac­cine dis­tributed faster?

[Question] Com­par­ing Covid and Tobacco

[Question] Us­ing false but in­stru­men­tally ra­tio­nal be­liefs for your ca­reer?

[Question] From be­hind the vale of ig­no­rance, would you pre­fer fo­cused pro­tec­tion or the cur­rent Covid policy in the US

[Question] Would a more deadly virus have in­duced greater com­pli­ance with US lock­down re­stric­tions?

A few predictions

More predictions