That’s exactly how i felt too.
“Don’t gamble” is the key. 1a allowed me to indulge that even if i was boxed into being in the game.
So in question 2 I want to follow “don’t gamble” but both are gambling. Additionally, both gambles would feel the same risk to most human who didn’t record statistics (other than subconscious and normal memory effected observations) so could be cheaply rounded off to say they are the same. If they are “the same” but 1 pays more money...
Oh one more point “easy come easy go”. If you can lose 2 either way you won’t feel like you ever had anything. However even before you pick 1a and they physically hand you the money, it’s already yours (by virtue of the ability to choose 1a ) until you choose 1b and introduce the probability that you won’t be paid. I say already yours because if you are guaranteed the choice of 1a forever and unconditionally unless until you choose 1b- that’s no less “having money” than when you “have money” but it’s in your pocket or in your wallet in the other room. It might not be your money anymore if you fling your wallet out the window hoping it will boomerang back (1b) but it was until you introduced that gamble rather than just choosing to clutch the wallet (1a).
I feel like i must be missing the point or something because they seems so obviously right...
Ok that is exactly my line of thinking and why i can’t understand the broader point of this argument.
Yes I can see the statistical similarity that makes it “the same”- but the situation is totally different in that one offers “certain win or risk” and the other is “risk vs risk” with a barely noticeable difference between them.
So my decision on both questions goes like this 1a > 1b because even if i was offered MUCH less, i’d still likely take that deciding that i’m not greedy and free money always feels good but giving away free money (by trying to get a bit more) always feels foolish and greedy.
2b > 2a because if the statistic played out over 100 times, the average person will think it was equal value between them- unless they logged the statistics to find the slight difference. Therefore if it takes that much attention to feel the difference it’s easy to pretend they are the same risk but one is 11.12% more money- which is a lot easier to notice without logging statistics.
I don’t see how these decisions conflict with each other.