I did have similar timelines, but I have generally moved them forward to ~ 2027-2028 after updating my priors with OpenAI/XAI employee X posts. They are generally confident that post-training scaleups will accelerate timelines, as well as stating that post-training can be scaled, with return to match, well beyond that of pre-training. As they have inside information, I am inclined to trust them. Insiders like Anthropic’s Jack Clark are even more bold, he says that superintelligent machines will be available late 2026.
I did have similar timelines, but I have generally moved them forward to ~ 2027-2028 after updating my priors with OpenAI/XAI employee X posts. They are generally confident that post-training scaleups will accelerate timelines, as well as stating that post-training can be scaled, with return to match, well beyond that of pre-training. As they have inside information, I am inclined to trust them. Insiders like Anthropic’s Jack Clark are even more bold, he says that superintelligent machines will be available late 2026.