Thanks for posting this. I am a bit surprised that the forecasts for hardware-related restrictions are so low. Are there any notes or details available on what led the group to those numbers?
In particular the spread between firmware-based monitoring (7%) and compute capacity restrictions (15%) seems too small to me. I would have expected either a higher chance of restrictions or lower chance of on-chip monitoring because both are predicated on similar decision-making steps but implementing and operating an end-to-end firmware monitoring system has many technical hurdles.
I think this is a really nice write-up! As someone relatively new to the idea of AI Safety, having a summary of all the approaches people are working on is really helpful as it would have taken me weeks to put this together on my own.
Obviously this would be a lot of work, but I think it would be really great to post this as a living document on GitHub where you can update and (potentially) expand it over time, perhaps by curating contributions from folks. In particular it would be interesting to see three arguments for each approach: a “best argument for”, “best argument against” and “what I think is the most realistic outcome”, along with uncertainties for each.