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snewman

Karma: 690

Software engineer and repeat startup founder; best known for Writely (aka Google Docs). Now starting https://​​www.aisoup.org to foster constructive expert conversations about open questions in AI and AI policy, and posting at https://​​amistrongeryet.substack.com and https://​​x.com/​​snewmanpv.

35 Thoughts About AGI and 1 About GPT-5

snewman16 Aug 2025 19:20 UTC
21 points
20 comments16 min readLW link
(secondthoughts.ai)

Up­dates from Com­ments on “AI 2027 is a Bet Against Am­dahl’s Law”

snewman2 May 2025 23:52 UTC
42 points
2 comments13 min readLW link

In­ter­pret­ing the METR Time Hori­zons Post

snewman30 Apr 2025 3:03 UTC
70 points
12 comments10 min readLW link
(amistrongeryet.substack.com)

AI 2027 is a Bet Against Am­dahl’s Law

snewman21 Apr 2025 3:09 UTC
127 points
56 comments9 min readLW link

What Indi­ca­tors Should We Watch to Disam­biguate AGI Timelines?

snewman6 Jan 2025 19:57 UTC
142 points
57 comments13 min readLW link

Towards Bet­ter Mile­stones for Mon­i­tor­ing AI Capabilities

snewman27 Sep 2023 21:18 UTC
11 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

The AI Ex­plo­sion Might Never Happen

snewman19 Sep 2023 23:20 UTC
22 points
31 comments9 min readLW link