I came to Less Wrong in 2009 because of posts I noticed on the Doomsday Argument, which I have written about in the peer-reviewed literature. Recently, I self-published a short e-book which addresses the subject along with other subjects that I think would be of interest to this community. But the book is not free—the price is $4—and I am concerned that I might be violating etiquette if I self-promote it in a Discussion post. (I do have four karma points.)
In a post I have drafted (but not submitted) for Less Wrong, I summarize part of my book; I also invite professional scholars and educators to email me to request a complimentary evaluation copy, and I extend the same offer to the first ten Less Wrong members with a Karma Score of 100 or greater who email me. Would such an offer be in keeping with Less Wrong’s etiquette? I am open to other suggestions. However, partly in order to avoid potential conflicts with the original publisher of an article of mine that this book expands upon, I do not want to make the book free to everyone.
My paper, Past Longevity as Evidence for the Future, in the January 2009 issue of Philosophy of Science, contains a new refutation to the Doomsday Argument, without resort to SIA.
The paper argues that the Carter-Leslie Doomsday Argument conflates future longevity and total longevity. For example, the Doomsday Argument’s Bayesian formalism is stated in terms of total longevity, but plugs in prior probabilities for future longevity. My argument has some similarities to that in Dieks 2007, but does not rely on the Self-Sampling Assumption.