I used to be a professional tarot reader and astrologer
May I ask, at that time did you thoroughly believe that you were actually able to predict the future?
Also, with the benefit of hindsight, do you consider yourself to have used the dark arts?
rlp10
Karma: 117
It strikes me that this discussion of the benefits of religiosity, separate from its truth, is reminiscent of the placebo effect.
I’ve been working on anti-akrasia software. Currently it allows a person to log their daily activities, and assess how ‘productive’ they have been each day.
What I envision is a program with a modular facility: people can suggest and code modules providing anti-akrasia techniques.
A user would configure the program: my goals are X and Y and the anti-akrasia techniques I am using are A, B and C. Then the user would operate the program for a few days logging their daily activities, including how much closer towards their goals this takes them.
A user could then analyse the success of different techniques, with the software doing the heavy-lifting (i.e. applying bayes to suggest how much the user should believe that a certain technique is effective in helping them achieve their goals). Based on this information, the user would reconfigure the software, varying their goals or changing which techniques they are using.
If the user was willing, anonymous data could be collected to provide wider information on what techniques work and for what kinds of goals.
Any people capable of coding would be able to submit (a) modules for anti-akrasia techniques and (b) modules for analysing the data.
Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated!
So, for boot-strapping purposes (i.e. learning as you go), perhaps the algorithm would look like this?
Diagnosis
A1. Read about the four “factors” of procrastination (expectancy, value, impulsiveness and delay)
A2. Notice that you’re procrastinating
A3. Consider which factor is most relevant
A4. Are you confident you have identified the most relevant factor?
If YES, go to A5
If NO, go to A1
A5. Considering your recorded results so far (if any), have you learned a subskill which can address the relevant factor?
If NO, goto B1
If YES, goto C1
Learning Subskills
B1. Read about the subskills relevant to the problem factor
B2. Choose the subskill that appears easiest for you to learn
B3. Make a plan to learn, implement and practice that subskill
Goto C1
Implementing Subskills
C1. Implement the relevant subskill
C2. Record the results of implementing the subskill
Goto A2 when relevant
What do you think?
A5. Considering your recorded results so far (if any), have you learned a subskill which can address the relevant factor?
If NO, goto B1 (learning a new subskill)
If YES, goto C1 (implement an existing subskill)
My intention was that the algorithm would lead to your learning as many subskills as were necessary until the procrastination was beat, but no more.
I instintively agree, but wonder what evidence exists (beyond anecdotal) for asserting successful systems which are complex only evolve from simple systems.
How to measure procrastination?
Thank you for your thoughts.
Not seeing any suggestions from you—did you spend 5 minutes thinking about it before asking here?
Yes, I’ve spent some time thinking and researching this question, including looking at this research paper and this survey.
Because I didn’t want ideas similar to my own, I didn’t initially list my own ideas for fear of priming the responses.
I recognise with hindsight that my post gives the impression that I was unwilling to help myself—I could have been clearer.
Finally, given all the discussion on anti-akrasia and procrastination, I thought that others may have actual experience to share.
Is there any software you would recommend for this?
My own research points to AutoScreenShot.
Yes, I have had the same experience, although it always seems short-lived.
Perhaps it says more about the technique of consuming motivational self-help books, more than the techniques described inside.
I believe that this is sometimes referred to as the ‘ABC model’ (antecedent, behaviour, consequence) and is the basis of cognitive behavioural therapy.
The book, Self-Directed Behaviour, is based on this model. I enjoyed it but, as I’m not academic in that area, can’t really comment on the research behind it.
“Subreddits” were discussed here and you can see there some of the pros and cons.
Personally, I would support subreddits. I’ve been involved in one or two spinoff mailing lists, and it seems a shame that the content of those posts is not available to all on the LW site, if they want to read through them.
I’m interested.
Meetup : First Norwich UK Meetup Sunday 1 April 11am
As it happens, I have a pretty good-sized paperclip right here. So yeah, I’ll pop that on the table if I arrive first.
I guess we’re the only two LWers in Norwich (so far!).
Alexey, you related this experience to me when I visited Cambridge a couple of weeks back. I’ve taken your advice and setup a meetup in Norwich this weekend. I only posted a week earlier on the website though, so perhaps next time I should post more in advance.
So, that’s another benefit of the Budepest meetup, it encouraged at least one other meetup in another city.
I’ve just spoken with the venue and unusually they’re not opening until 12 noon!
There’s another pub that’s definitely open called The Belle Vue; It’s just around the corner. The address is The Belle Vue, 46 St. Phillips Road, Norwich, NR2 3BL. The directions from The Black Horse are: walk up Heighman Road, take the first left onto Stafford Street and then it’s on the corner of the fourth right turn which is called St Phillips Road.
I’ll plan to stay at The Black Horse until 11:15am in case someone else shows up, and then walk up to The Belle Vue.
Idea: Self-Improving Task Management Software
Thank you for your positive comments, and particularly those interested in contributing to the code.
I’ve created a git repository here: https://github.com/rlp10/sitm. I’ve also written some initial documents outlining my ideas for how the code would be written: a README document, a TODO list, a list of ideas for plugins and a PLAN document giving my overall technical roadmap. All these are committed into the repository for you to read and comment upon.
I would be very grateful for people’s comments on github regarding my plans for coding. I would like this to be a community effort. I’ve posted some questions already under “Issues”.
I will post back here with our progress for those who wish to try using the program. All technical discussion will take place on github, rather than on lesswrong.com.
Let’s work together to make this project a success and get ourselves more motivated and productive!
Hi, I’m Richard. I’m a lawyer, practising in Norwich, England. I’ve been ‘lurking’ on lesswrong, and working my way through the sequences, for some time.
I have an interest in technology, and particularly open source projects. For example, I’m writing this right now in Emacs.
I hope I will be able to contribute positively to this community, which has certainly already helped me a great deal.